British
Election Panel Study, 1992-97
The Findings
The Labour
Party reforms itself…
The Labour Party changed considerably
between 1992 and 1997. The survey shows that the reforms made an impact on
voters. By the time of the 1997 election people were less likely to think that
Labour was in favour of nationalising industries, increasing taxes, or giving a
high priority to the reduction of inequality. But much of the change in
people's perceptions took place before Tony Blair became leader in 1994.
Interestingly, the panel
reveals that although Labour was seen as having moved to the centre, voters
themselves were moving leftwards. Compared with 1992, the average voter was by
1997 keener on nationalisation, higher spending (even if that meant higher
taxes) and on government attempts to reduce inequality. As a result even more
voters were closer to Labour than before.
Voters
also believed that the Conservative Party had moved to the right on these
issues. It seems, then, that during the nineties the public were moving in the
opposite direction to that which they thought both main political parties were
moving.
Labour’s new supporters…
Normally
it isn’t that common for people to switch their vote directly from Conservative
to Labouror vice-versa. What people do is switch between the main parties and
the Liberal Democrats, or not vote at all.
However,
between 1992 and 1994 (before Tony Blair became Labour leader) Labour gained a
lot of new support from former Conservative voters. But even during this period
more Conservative voters were switching to the Liberal Democrats than to
Labour.
After
1994 the usual pattern was restored: five times as many people switched from
the Liberal Democrats to Labour than from the Conservatives to Labour. It would
appear, therefore, that Tony Blair's re-branding of his party as ‘New’ bour was
most successful at winning over Liberal Democrat voters - indeed much of
Labour's local campaigning in key seats in the 1997 election was aimed at
winning over Liberal Democrats.
The Tony Blair effect…
The
Labour Party has historically been seen as a working class party with strong
trade union links. Some people suggest, however, that with Tony Blair as its
leader the Labour Party has become more attractive to the middle classes - and
that this was vital for its success in winning the 1997 election.
The
survey shows that middle class people were indeed more likely to switch to
Labour between 1992 and 1997 than were working class people. But at the same
time it also suggests that there may have been a price to pay - some of the
party's more traditional working class supporters appear to have opted to stay at
home.
…The
Referendum Party
Some
people think that the Referendum Party was very important in the 1997 election,
costing the Conservatives as many as 19 seats. Most Referendum Party voters had
indeed voted Conservative in 1992. However the panel shows that many of these
people had already defected from the Conservatives by 1994 - well before the
Referendum Party was founded. Like many other voters who switched from the
Conservatives they were dissatisfied about issues such as the NHS, the economy
and the Government’s competence, but in 1997 they chose to vote for the
Referendum Partyrather than for Labour or the Liberal Democrats because of its
distinct Eurosceptic position. So in practice may of the people who voted for t
he Referendum Party in 1997 would otherwise have voted Liberal Democrat or
Labour rather than for the Conservatives.
…Europe
& the rise of Euro-scepticism
Although
the Referendum Party wasn’t itself a major source of the Conservatives'
problems i the 1997 election, the European issue caused many problems for John
Major during the 1992-7 parliament, not least because it occasioned numerous
rebellions amongst his back-benchers.. During this period, however, voters
became more sceptical in their attitude towards Europe. Meanwhile on average
they were also more likely to think that the Conservat ives were Eurosceptic.
All of this should have meant that the issue of Europe helped the Conservatives
in 1997.
However,
the panel shows that only 31% thought that the Conservatives were closest to their
views on Europe while 41% put Labour closest to their view? How was this
possible?
Voters
had varying views about what they thought the Conservatives’ policy position
was. Pro-European voters tended to see the Conservatives as Eurosceptic, while
Eurosceptic voters believed the Conservatives were pro-European. In short ,
many voters thought that the Conservatives’ views were the opposite of
their own. This may be a reflection of the divisions that the Conservatives
suffered on Europe after 1992.
…the
role of newspapers & the press
The
panel has helped us to understand the role of the press in elections in a
unique and interesting way. In 1992 The Sun claimed that it was ‘The
Sun wot won it’ as they strongly ba cked the Conservatives in the election.
In 1997 however, the newspaper changed sides to back Labour. But can newspapers
influence election results?
After
1992 a number of traditional Conservative supporting papers became disparaging
of the Government. This meant that many people reading pro-Conservative papers
were exposed to more critical coverage than is normally the case.
This
does seem to have had some effect. Between 1992 and 1997 readers of those
newspapers that were traditionally pro-Conservative but which during this
period were more critical were not particularly likely to remain loyal to the
Conse rvative. In contrast between 1987 and 1992 they had been. It seems then
that the critical coverage meant that much of the traditionally
pro-Conservative press did not perform its usual role of helping to maintain
Conservative support.
But,
this doesn’t mean that the press influenced the outcome of the election in a
big way. For although readers of Conservative newspapers were not particularly
loyal to their party after 1992, they were not particularly disloyal
either. They were simply as likely to switch from the Conservatives as any
other voter. Despite the effort made by the Labour Party to woo papers like The
Sun and The Daily Mail, it was in fact readers of the traditionally
pro-Labour paper The Mirror who were most likely to switch to Labour.
Moreover,
the influence of pro-Labour and pro-Conservative papers can often cancel each
other out. So although some voters are influenced by the newspapers they read
this might not have a very big impact on the overall election o utcome.
We should remember too that not all voters read newspapers - and not all
newspaper readers vote
|
1992 |
BEPS
fourth survey . |
|
April
9 Conservatives win the general election with a majority of
21. |
May
25 Conservatives lose Perth & Kinross by-election. |
|
BEPS
first survey . |
Jun
22 John Major resigns as Conservative Party leader but later
wins a leadership contest. |
|
April
13 Neil Kinnock resigns as Labour leader. |
July
5 Jonathan Aitken resigns from Cabinet to fight a libel
action against The Guardian newspaper. |
|
May
7 Nationwide local elections, Conservatives gain 300 seats. |
July
27 Conservatives lose the Littleborough & Saddleworth
by-election. |
|
July
18 John Smith elected Labour Party leader. |
Oct
7 Conservative MP Alan Howarth defects to Labour Party. |
|
Sept
16 ‘Black Wednesday’, Britain leaves the Exchange Rate
Mechanism, sterling is devalued. Labour overtakes the Conservatives in the
polls. |
BEPS
fifth survey . |
|
Sept
24 David Mellor resigns from Cabinet after a highly
publicised extra-marital affair. |
Dec
29 Conservative MP Emma Nicholson defects to the Lib Dems. |
|
1993 |
1996 |
|
May
6 Local elections - Conservatives lose 15 Councils and the
Newbury by-election. |
Feb
15 Damaging arms-to-Iraq report published. |
|
BEPS
second survey . |
Mar
20 Government admits a link exists between CJD and BSE. EU
bans exports of British beef. |
|
May
27 Norman Lamont resigns as Chancellor of the Exchequer. |
April
11 Conservatives lose Staffordshire South East by-election. |
|
July
22 Govt loses a vote on the Maastricht Treaty, but later wins
a confidence vote. |
May
2 English council elections: Conservatives lose 578 seats. |
|
July
29 Conservatives lose Christchurch by-election. |
BEPS
sixth survey . |
|
October
6 John Major launches his ‘back to basics’ campaign. |
Jun
27 Labour announces it will hold referendums on Scottish and
Welsh devolution. |
|
1994 |
Oct
12 Conservative MP Peter Thurnham defects to Lib Dems. |
|
January
5 Tim Yeo MP resigns ministerial post after extra-marital
affair exposed. |
BEPS
seventh survey (partial survey). |
|
May
5 Local elections - large number of Conservative losses. |
Nov Parliament
begins inquiry into cash-for-questions allegations. |
|
May
12 John Smith, Labour Party leader, dies. |
Dec
11 David Willets MP resigns as Paymaster General after his role
in parliament’s inquiry into cash for questions causes controversy. |
|
June
9 European elections - Conservatives get 28% of the vote,
lose 14 seats and the Eastleigh by-election. |
1997 |
|
October
25 Neil Hamilton, MP for Tatton resigns ministerial post over
cash for questions allegations. |
Jan
20 Labour Party announces it will not raise income tax if
elected. |
|
BEPS
third survey . |
Feb
27 Conservatives lose Wirral South by-election. |
|
July
21 Tony Blair elected Labour Party leader. Labour’s support
in the polls rises to over 50%. |
Mar
8 Conservative MP George Gardiner defects to Referendum
Party. |
|
Nov
27 Referendum Party established. |
Mar
17 General Election set for May 1st. |
|
Nov
29 Govt removes whip from 8 Euro-rebels. |
Mar
18 The Sun announces it
will back Labour. |
|
Dec
9 Conservatives lose the Dudley West by-election. |
April
8 Martin Bell stands against Neil Hamilton as an independent
candidate in Tatton. |
|
1995 |
May
1 Labour wins the general election with a majority of 179. |
|
May
4 Local elections - Conservatives lose half their
councillors. |
BEPS
eighth and final survey . |
For further information about BEPS contact:
Catherine Bromley
National Centre for Social Research
35 Northampton Square
London, EC1V 0AX
Telephone: 020 7549 9572
Email: c.bromley@natcen.ac.uk.
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